On Ron Paul’s Straw Poll Win
Boos abounded, but that hasn’t stopped Paulites from proclaiming victory over this year’s CPAC Straw Poll results. The Campaign for Liberty, a spin-off group from Rep. Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign, has treated the results as a shot across the bow of establishment Republicans/neoconservatism since this is the first time in four years that former presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has lost the CPAC Straw Poll.
I actually took this at CPAC 2009; some ass stepped in front of Ron Paul as he made his way through the Omni after addressing conference attendees
For what it’s worth, the CPAC straw poll is self-selecting. They have a table at the event with clipboards and pens, and they politely remind you, “Don’t forget to take the straw poll!” as you bounce around the hotel from exhibit hall to exhibit hall. Further, people don’t go to CPAC to fill out a survey on a clipboard – they go to meet other activists and network. For example, out of over 10,000 conference attendees, only 2,395 people took the survey (see the full polling results here). Why is that significant? Well, a little phenomenon called sampling bias, and therefore, skewed polling results.
In my humble opinion, it’s a very good sign that Republicans are paying a great deal of attention to libertarian ideas, and that the Tea Parties have become a real wild card in the 2010 elections; in fact, it’s a fascinating thing to watch incumbent politicians and national political parties crapping their pants trying to figure out how best to harness an organic groundswell that doesn’t want to be harnessed.
But at the end of the day, it’s entirely premature and wholly inappropriate to call this a huge win for Ron Paul.
George – what is more interesting is the reaction to it! The boos came about because of who was in – and who wasn’t in – the room at the time.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/33225.html
“CPAC organizers were plainly embarrassed by the results… A spokesman for the conference rushed over to reporters following the announcement to make sure they had heard the unmistakable boos when the screen first showed Paul had won the straw poll.”
…
“When Paul was announced as the winner, his many college supporters erupted in the corridors outside the ballroom, yelling, jumping and chanting their candidate’s name.”
What this really tells us is that the 18-24 year old crowd is active and involved, but the establishment is struggling to keep them “out of the main room”… literally in this case!